Sept 2, 2024
Below is a chart illustrating the latest Solar Cycle Sunspot & Radio Flux projections vs actual. As we should expect, both are higher than expected.
June 17, 2024
The chart below illustrates the weakening of the Magnetosphere over time. Yes indicates the Aurora was visible in the regions on the far left. As you can see, in 2024 they Aurora had moved deep into the south. The further the Aurora is visible in the south, the more weakened the Magnetosphere has become.
May 12, 2024
This weekend we experienced 7 solar flares / CMEs from our Sun. There have been some network problems and satellite networks which have experienced problems, however no major electric grid outages. The Aurora was visible as far south as Texas and Florida which is of course highly unusual. These were not major storms and the Aurora visibility in the southern regions are primarily due to our weakened Magnetosphere, about 25 to 30% weakened. Below are some of the Aurora pictures taken in parts of our nation.
Feb. 16, 2024Two significant updates came in the form of two papers. The first is regarding the magnetic pole excursion/reversal. In summary:
Geomagnetic field measurements indicate that at present we may be on the brink of the Earth’s magnetic field reversal, potentially resulting in all the accompanying negative consequences for the mankind. Mathematical modelling is necessary in order to find precursors for reversals and excursions of the magnetic field. With this purpose in mind, following the Podvigina scenario for the emergence of the reversals, we have studied convective flows not far (in the parameter space) from their onset and the onset of magnetic field generation and found a flow demonstrating reversals of polarity of some harmonics comprising the magnetic field. We discuss a simulated regime featuring patterns of behaviour that apparently indicate future reversals of certain harmonics of the magnetic field. It remains to be seen whether reversal precursors similar to the observed ones exist and might be applicable for the much more complex geomagnetic dynamo.
The paper can be found here:
Predictability of Magnetic Field Reversals.pdf
The second is regarding the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which is a critical factor in Earth temperature regulation. In summary:
One of the most prominent climate tipping elements is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which can potentially collapse due to the input of fresh water in the North Atlantic. Although AMOC collapses have been induced in state-of-the-art Global Climate Models (GCMs) by strong freshwater forcing, an AMOC tipping event has so far not been found. Here, we show the results of the first AMOC tipping event in such a GCM, the Community Earth System Model, including the large climate impacts of the associated AMOC collapse. Using these results, we develop a new
physics-based and observable early warning signal of AMOC tipping: the minimum of the AMOC-induced freshwater transport at the southern boundary of the Atlantic. Available observational and reanalysis data indicate that the present-day AMOC is on route to tipping. The new early warning signal is a useful alternative to classical statistical ones which, when applied to our simulated AMOC tipping event, turn out to be sensitive to the analyzed time interval before tipping.
The paper can be found here:
Physics-Based Early Warning Signal Shows That AMOC is on Tipping Course.pdf
11-1-2023
In 2003, on October 28, we experienced an X17 solar flare, followed by another X10 solar flare on October 29. As a result, auroras were visible as far south as Arizona, Georgia, California, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas.
Historically, low-latitude auroras have been observed in 2003, 2001, 1991, 1989, 1972, 1921, 1903, 1882, and 1859.
In 2023, we have witnessed low latitude auroras five times. None of these instances were X-class flares. This marks an unprecedented occurrence, indicating a significant weakening of our magnetosphere. Surprisingly, the media has been silent on this issue. This is indeed a major news story.
9-29-2023
Our magnetosphere to date has lost approximately 25-30% of its strength. Red Aurora are becoming more common as far South as Arizona, this was far more rare in past solar cycles.
9-28-2023
Starlink has lost 212 Satellites in the period spanning July 18th and September 18th, data compiled by Satellitemap.space shows. Although these satellites are expendable, there is an unusually high number of them. Typically, they should last 5 years.
The first Satellites went up on May 24, 2019, so they are dropping faster than designed. Data shows the number of burned-up satellites steadily increasing over the past three years, but a significant spike can be observed starting the month of July.